This second wave was entirely predictable but many are treating it as a giant surprise, including the government,

A large retailer (not Evans/SD I might add), who has ins to the government as a company with insight into consumer behaviour, was planning for how the late October wave would affect things back in June. In hindsight now I'm a bit shocked by how accurate that comment was. Behaviour patterns at national scale are predictable enough I suppose.

All the planning at my NHS trust was about this happening. I’ve sat through so many tedious ‘surge capacity’ meetings I wanted to scratch my eyes out. All the way back in May we were getting ready for a second wave starting as early September or as late as November.
Where as the first wave had a sharp rise and drop - like the Matterhorn, this wave is expected to look more like Table Mountain - not as high but with a much wider summit.
Waves 3 and probably even 4 are harder to predict just now. Joy.

lune ranger wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:26 am Where as the first wave had a sharp rise and drop - like the Matterhorn, this wave is expected to look more like Table Mountain - not as high but with a much wider summit.

Which is a huge, huge concern given where the death figures are already.

Can I just add - and I think most people on here appreciate it anyway - that it's not entirely unreasonable to hope that people won't book international flights/travel until at least the reports are start to come across that the last cases of Covid are indeed over and Covid is dead. Otherwise we're in a continuous 'groundhog day' of some sort.

Hopefully people might take heed of this and have some sort of self restraint (on international travel) and continue the Stay-Cations for 2021 until a full international all-clear is announced... PLEASE

Stats for today (I'm not at work, recovering from confirmed Covid which I believe I got from the gowning lobby from a Covid PPE3 ward) accroding to (my individual) agency app...

58 (today)
125 (tomorrow)
530 (rest of the week/month).

If anyone would like to know how that compares to a normal day (at my specific agency), roughly:

15ish (today)
10ish (tomorrow)
20ish (days after)



____________
Edit, a few hours later.
250
154
507

Lots from Wales but doesn't include Scotland at all. Now might be a good idea to stop kissing fence posts (or licking gates)...

Richard G wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:15 pm I'd actually prefer doing these occasionally and know that the virus is actually being knocked back rather than only going to pubs that serve food and only meeting three friends, outside on the 6th week of Junemas (which seems to be having very little effect).

Mm, me too I think. Make it easier for individuals and businesses to plan. I'm probably being naive. My comment about this taking everyone by surprise didn't include you guys in the health services who seem to be doing an amazing job predicting and planning ahead despite the vacillations of the various political factions.

Just had a quick scan of this thread and no one has mentioned "herd immunity"

Vaccines won't work because by the time they have developed, tested and got approval the virus would have mutated.

They are working on a vaccine from the Covid 19 from March/April right now, but already it's already mutating
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ases-study

In the early press conference back in March one of the experts got their ass kicked when he used the words "herd immunity", but it took Spanish flu 2 years to go away in 3 waves and it only disappeared when a high enough percentage of the people had caught it and had built up a "herd immunity" to it.

Taken from here
https://www.historyextra.com/period/fir ... o%20appear.

"The disease swept across Britain in three waves: mild in spring 1918; devastating in autumn 1918; and moderate in early 1919."

We're in the middle of this sh!te show, and fingers crossed out September holiday next year will be Covid free, but who knows

JohnClimber wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:53 pm Just had a quick scan of this thread and no one has mentioned "herd immunity"



In the early press conference back in March one of the experts got their ass kicked when he used the words "herd immunity", but it took Spanish flu 2 years to go away in 3 waves and it only disappeared when a high enough percentage of the people had caught it and had built up a "herd immunity" to it.

The problem being that to build up that herd immunity required the vast majority of affected populations to be exposed to the virus resulting in 10's of millions of deaths; the very situation we are trying to avoid.

From the evidence I've read in the press there the immune response from exposure to the virus seems to be limited in its longevity

Just had a quick scan of this thread and no one has mentioned "herd immunity"

Vaccines won't work because by the time they have developed, tested and got approval the virus would have mutated.

If its mutating how can we get herd immunity ?If it will mutate so much a vaccine based on it wont work then immunity based on an earlier caught version wont work for the very same reason - mutation.

Herd immunity is also a LOT of dead people and no one - except for a few outliers, the kind who are anti vax and/or very libertarian are arguing for it due to the number of dead people required to achieve it. The plan was to "keep it at bay" for a vaccine to be developed.
Credible source /citation for the claim a vaccine [ there are 170 + in development btw] wont work.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-in ... e-be-ready

Finally its actually mutating less than most corona viruses* and currently not at a rate that will make all of the 170 vaccines in production fail. your claim is , as polite as i can be , scientifically not supported by data




*

But sequencing data suggest that coronaviruses change more slowly than most other RNA viruses, probably because of a ‘proofreading’ enzyme that corrects potentially fatal copying mistakes. A typical SARS-CoV-2 virus accumulates only two single-letter mutations per month in its genome — a rate of change about half that of influenza and one-quarter that of HIV, says Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Basel, Switzerland.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

From the evidence I've read in the press there the immune response from exposure to the virus seems to be limited in its longevity

Antibody levels fall but there have still been very very few verified re infection cases
Is it still less than ten? the worldwide infected number is 45,428,731 with 1,185,721 deaths or 2.6 % and with a population of 7.8 billion thats 203 million dead people for herd immunity @ 100 % or over 120 m at 60% infected if that is enough for herd immunity

JohnClimber wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:53 pm
Vaccines won't work because by the time they have developed, tested and got approval the virus would have mutated.

Would you like to take a bet on this John? Shall we say thirty pounds?

I don’t think you can compare Spanish Flu timelines and suggest that’s how Covid will pan out.

Even with troop movements I’ve not seen anything to suggest the number of movements across borders is comparable. Globally we saw 4.5 Billion individuals taking flights last year for example.

Piemonster wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:44 am I don’t think you can compare Spanish Flu timelines and suggest that’s how Covid will pan out.

Even with troop movements I’ve not seen anything to suggest the number of movements across borders is comparable. Globally we saw 4.5 Billion individuals taking flights last year for example.

additionally we have a far more aged population, a far greater population density making spread quicker but offset by more advanced medicine so we can’t really compare Spanish flu and covid 19 directly- in early 1900s pre WWI, average life expectancy in England and Wales was about 55 for men and 60 for women, now it’s around 75 and 80 respectively, There are approx 12 million people in UK over 65.

I can’t see much improvement by next year

Not without a vaccine no

On that front, it’s worth remembering all viruses mutate, mutations do not by default mean ineffective vaccines.

For people espousing herd immunity... remember, massive deaths that would cause aside, this doesn't just kill you.

I just had my symptoms come back again, 7 months after I got it. Couldn't even get through a warmup without my lungs feeling like they were going to explode. Used an SPO2 monitor and saw my blood oxygen had dropped to 84%. Did a "recovery" ride and had my heart rate hit 95% of my max HR. Solid hour of coughing (and tasting blood) after finishing for my stats to get back up to somewhere approximating normal, and even then a couple of percent under my normal resting blood oxygen level of 99%.

I've had this happen four or five times since I was infected. So sure, you might get no symptoms at all and brush it off like it's nothing. But you may very well get long term debilitating effects that (right now) no-one seems to know how to treat.