Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by sean_iow » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:28 pm

In Reverse wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:17 pm
They're predicting the peak no. of cases for this summer to be in 10-14 weeks, so we can expect progressively tighter controls up to then, then some slackening off afterwards with control measures being reintroduced towards the winter as the number infected starts to rise again.
I keep seeing this about the infections rising again in the winter which implies that they will drop because of the heat of the summer. The WHO website states it is unaffected by temperature, so the sun coming out won't reduce infections. The WHO website is actually worth a read for anyone who would like to see the facts without any political slant.
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by Bearbonesnorm » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:49 pm

The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic lasted from Jan 1918 to Dec 1920 (according to wiki) so somewhat longer than 2 weeks. That killed a between 17 million and 50 million people (estimated) worldwide although there were likely other factors to that as it was just after the war.
I'm going to assume that the world wasn't in lock-down for those two years and at some point, people had no choice but to return to a 'normal' way of life? I'm trying to imagine just what there'd be left to return to after a strict two year lock-down?
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by whitestone » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:09 pm

There just wasn't the volume of both international trade and international travel then. Would have to check when commercial passenger flights really got going but the numbers would have been closer to those signing up for Virgin Galactic to have a 30 minute flight into orbit than anything close to today's numbers. Other than for war people didn't do much international travel at the time.

Travel was also a lot slower - if someone boarded a liner heading for America they'd enough time to go past the incubation stage and show the full blown symptoms so the ship could radio ahead and suitable quarantine arranged (or a body bag).

Bizarrely Spanish Flu seemed to target the fit and healthy - it spread

Covid-19 is in the body for around three days before you "might" show symptoms (it's currently thought that you are only contagious if showing symptoms). That's a long time - you could fly from China to anywhere in the world, mingle with hundreds possibly thousands of people and touch lots of surfaces before being aware that you were infected. I haven't seen anything to suggest so called "super carriers", i.e. highly infections people who show no symptoms - the classic case for this was Typhoid Mary Mallon in New York.
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by Bearbonesnorm » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:14 pm

There just wasn't the volume of both international trade and international travel then.
Yes indeed Bob, which kind of puts us in a potentially much worse situation with regard to maintaining a fuctioning and stable society.
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by stevewaters » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:38 pm

I had only just signed up to the Dales Divide 2020 yesterday after an Easter trip to Majorca was canned and then hearing about the news about the Highland Trail 550.

Listening to the Cycling Podcast today about the experiences and thoughts albeit of pro road cyclists in counties such as Italy and Spain I am much more pessimistic about what we will legally be allowed to do in a few weeks and - even if we could and wanted to ride - what the potential "social stigma" reaction from the public might be.

I now expect my turbo trainer and Zwift subscription are going to get plenty of use into Spring and Summer. - Not ideal but they give me a good cycling "fix" and should allow me to maintain my cycling "fitness".

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by thenorthwind » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:28 pm

redefined_cycles wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:21 pm
Reason for me abstaining IMO (right or wrong) the more contacts/interactions we make/have then the more likely we might be part of the chain (either pre or post) to infecting someone who's immune system cannoyt take the hit.
In Reverse wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:28 pm
The closing of cafes and pubs will significantly increase the distance between resupply on some sections of the route.

Seems a shame to do the ride and not have the option of sampling the local culture available.
whitestone wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:36 pm
Against that is the sight of eighty or so riders setting off from Arnside across the north of England which sort of gives an "up yours" message to everyone else, particularly since the average age of the population of Arnside is probably in the 80s.
Dave Barter wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:14 pm
I'm not going as I live in a street with elderly neighbours and have offered to help if they get imposed lockdown. I don't feel I can piss off and leave them. Andy's point on cafes/pubs would probably stop me regardless.
All very good points. I'm pretty gutted as I was building it up to it with some long rides, some of which happened despite some poor show weather, and mentally building up to it, planning kit, etc. It was going to be the first major part of my plan to get enough experience this year to convince Alan Goldsmith to give me a place on next year's HT550 group start. All that looks uncertain now, not least because next years HT550 will likely largely be filled with people who got a place this year.

But things are about to get a whole lot worse for a whole lot more people, so I shan't dwell on it. Extra chapeau to Dave for putting his neighbours first. We've also put a note through all the doors on our street offering help, and whilst our neighbours aren't really elderly, we can't help if we're not here.

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by Jurassic pusher » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:54 am

I too had the email from Chris, and I suppose deep down I was hoping it would be cancelled this year if only to make the decision to go or not to go for me!
I have decided that I will not be riding the Dales Divide this year, it just doesn`t feel right to, and as we all know, so much of this type of event needs 100% commitment to have any chance of completion.

I feel for Chris (and other event organisers) so much work has been put in but hopefully be ok and all sorted next year?
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by whitestone » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:22 am

This is what we (Bob Graham Club) have said about the current situation and the Bob Graham Round. Links haven’t worked in the copy and paste. BGR attempts tend to be two or three people in a group.
The worldwide Covid-19 pandemic is affecting all our lives. It is understandable that as fell runners we seek “release” through our sport. However fell running does not exist in isolation, self or otherwise, and we need to consider any knock-on effects of what we do. All fell racing in the UK is on hold for the foreseeable future, partly due to gatherings of large numbers of people and partly the risk from those people travelling from and returning to different communities.

The UK government appears to be taking a “ramped” response to the pandemic allowing the population time to adjust to each measure. We have no way of knowing how far they intend to take this process or what any future restrictions might be or how well they will be enforced. At the time of writing (19th March 2020) the government recognises physical activity as being beneficial and is not being viewed as “non-essential”.

The Lake District Mountain Rescue Teams have issued a statement about emergency coverage in the weeks and months ahead - MRT statement - acting within your abilities and experience will substantially lessen any risks. In the 49 years of the Bob Graham Club there have been, to our knowledge, only two Mountain Rescue call-outs for contenders either reccying the Round or on an actual attempt. That is an exemplary record but as investment adverts state: “past performance is no guarantee of the future”. For the Bob Graham Round this would mean avoiding Broad Stand and Lord’s Rake/West Wall Traverse and taking particular care on the rocky ground between Rossett Pike and Scafell Pike.

For the moment the Club recommends postponing any attempt but will accept any successful attempt that takes place should that individual decide to go ahead. In this instance we would recommend the absolute minimum of supporters/pacers and that all members of the attempt have sufficient fell experience. However should travel restrictions be imposed or outdoor activities be banned by the government we will not recognise attempts after the date of introduction of any such restrictions.

“The mountains will always be there. The trick is to make sure you are.”

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Mart
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by Mart » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:49 pm

whitestone wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:22 am
“The mountains will always be there. The trick is to make sure you are.”

Don Whillans
[/quote]

Don always did have a very matter of fact way with words
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by redefined_cycles » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:55 pm

Well done Don Whillans. If only the message from the organiser of the LeJOG audax read similarly. In a nutshell it basically said 'we'll see but for the mo plans are continuing to keep developing the ride/planning!... Oh well!

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by redefined_cycles » Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:45 pm

Thats Andy Corless message regards LeJog-audax... seems like there's no concern bout sleeping in close quarters and even if we manage to get less deaths than anticipated then its daft things like this will put themselves and others at risk...

Anyway, the message as per YACF

Re: LEJOG: 26 - 31 JULY 2020

« Reply #133 on: Today at 09:07:59 am »

Good morning all!

Firstly, I'd like to offer my condolences to anyone who's lost loved ones during the Covid 19 pandemic. I'd also like to take the opportunity to thank those AUK members working for the emergency services around the clock for us all this last few weeks during the dreadful Covid 19 outbreak.

Obviously, we've seen the Covid-19 outbreak have an impact on sporting events worldwide which might or might not have an impact on the LEJOG event. As you're all probably aware, AUK has temporarily suspended all future AUK events indefinitely due to the COVID 19 outbreak. The AUK board are going to review the situation at their next board meeting in late April, but they've also advised organisers not to cancel their events at the moment for logistical reasons.

As the LEJOG isn't due to take place before late July there's unlikely to be any further movement with the event physically or financially before the
April board meeting, other than myself continuing to build the event in the hope that the situation improves before the Summer and the event will go ahead as planned, although event entry has been restricted for now. In the meantime, entrants will continue to receive bi-monthly updates (next update due in April). If or whenever it becomes apparent that the LEJOG has to be postponed; cancelled etc then a range of options will need to be explored.

However, this is a rapidly escalating pandemic and actions, including government sanctions can be implemented at a moment's notice that have implications for everyone.

Andy Corless
Organiser
LEJOG AUDAX 2020

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by ScotRoutes » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:24 pm

Seems like a fair response. Of course, there might be folk not wanting to ride in July if they can't get in appropriate training.

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by Bearbonesnorm » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:30 pm

Yeah, I think that seems quite reasobable too. It really is a tough call and to be honest, probably not one people really want to make. As I've found out today, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. No matter what decision you make, not everyone will be happy with it.
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by In Reverse » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:33 pm

Bearbonesnorm wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:30 pm
Yeah, I think that seems quite reasobable too. It really is a tough call and to be honest, probably not one people really want to make. As I've found out today, you're damned if you do and damned if you don't. No matter what decision you make, not everyone will be happy with it.
Ooooh gossip. :grin: Spill the beans Stu!

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by RIP » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:37 pm

Was just gonna say that Andy! Yeah.... name and shame....fight, fight, fight! :grin:

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by whitestone » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:06 pm

Shaf, Don Whillans died in 1985, let's just say he was a character in the climbing/mountaineering world and someone about whom many tales were told, but rarely to his face :wink: Worth reading his biography by Jim Perrin, appropriately titled "Whillans", enough of an exposé that Jim waited until after the death of his widow to publish it.

"damned if you do, damned if you don't" If you make a decision then despite your best efforts, there's always someone to criticise it. We've already amended the BGR statement to block Club membership of any successful Round because sufficient people objected to the quite neutral stance we had taken just yesterday. No doubt someone will now complain about that course of action.

Back to the thread title. Given today's announcement of enforced pub, café and restaurant closure from tonight as well as hints about enforcing "social distancing" I can't see any organised event taking place for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by sean_iow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:34 pm

whitestone wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:06 pm
hints about enforcing "social distancing"
The restrictions are likely to keep being increased, at some point in the future people will think Logans Run was a documentary :wink:
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by RIP » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:49 pm

I do enjoy your little 'asides' Sean. Usually pop up at just the moment when the place needs brightening up a bit!

Oh, damn.... Jenny Agutter, Farrah Fawcett, Lara Lindsay...... :YMDAYDREAM: Steady on Reg.... the pills, the pills....
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"It is in the petty details, not in the great results, that the interest of existence lies" - JKJ

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by RIP » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:54 pm

Oh no, now you've done it. For no reason whatsoever I've had a sudden flashback to Catwoman.... Julie Newmar.... ....
wwwwrrrowwwllll....

ARG.

(sorry. Stu, please move this to the Very Very Very Cheery Friday thread. AAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH).
"There comes a time in your life Ponsonby, when you think: 'My God, I'm two-thirds of the way to the grave and what have I done?" - RIP

"It is in the petty details, not in the great results, that the interest of existence lies" - JKJ

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by sean_iow » Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:56 pm

Happy to help :-bd

I think I must get my sense of humour from my dad... when he was terminally ill the first thing he would do when he read the local paper would be to go straight to the deaths, births and marriages section to check he wasn't listed yet, then he look for people he knew who had passed away in the previous week and declare 'out-lasted him' every time he found one :lol:
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by In Reverse » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:33 am

sean_iow wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:28 pm
In Reverse wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:17 pm
They're predicting the peak no. of cases for this summer to be in 10-14 weeks, so we can expect progressively tighter controls up to then, then some slackening off afterwards with control measures being reintroduced towards the winter as the number infected starts to rise again.
I keep seeing this about the infections rising again in the winter which implies that they will drop because of the heat of the summer. The WHO website states it is unaffected by temperature, so the sun coming out won't reduce infections. The WHO website is actually worth a read for anyone who would like to see the facts without any political slant.
Sorry Sean, missed this. I think the winter issue is that people's immune systems are weaker (weakened by temp. or by primary infections from winter colds/flu) rather than the virus being affected by colder temperatures. A weakening of the average immune system across a population leads to a higher number of symptomatic cases.

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by sean_iow » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:04 am

Ah, thanks Andy, that makes sense.

Jane said at the hospital here yesterday the Chief Executive was in cleaners scrubs helping to set up a new ward ready. This obviously had a massive effect on moral as it shows they are in it together and got a lot of respect. Some of the other managers were simply emailing instructions from home :roll:

This whole situation is surreal, I can't quite get my head round that this time last year I was sorting kit for the Dales Divide and this year I'm thinking about what I'll do if riding is prohibited.

If it doesn't go ahead this year then at least my singlespeed record won't be broken, every cloud etc. :wink:
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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by slarge » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:40 am

sean_iow wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:04 am
Ah, thanks Andy, that makes sense.

Jane said at the hospital here yesterday the Chief Executive was in cleaners scrubs helping to set up a new ward ready. This obviously had a massive effect on moral as it shows they are in it together and got a lot of respect. Some of the other managers were simply emailing instructions from home :roll:

This whole situation is surreal, I can't quite get my head round that this time last year I was sorting kit for the Dales Divide and this year I'm thinking about what I'll do if riding is prohibited.

If it doesn't go ahead this year then at least my singlespeed record won't be broken, every cloud etc. :wink:

My daughter is a physio in the NHS, and they’re being told they will be retraining for respiratory physio. Helen is a receptionist at the local surgery and they’re having to do all appointments by phone and soon video link. Surreal times.

My training hasn’t been going well, so all the extra time to get fit for events if they happen later in the year is welcomed.....

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by boxelder » Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:00 am

Forestry Scotland just cancelled all events until the end of June. England to follow no doubt.

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Re: Dales Divide 2020 .. who's going?

Post by gloryhallelujahAl » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:45 am

I’ve put this decision off till now but decided to cancel my participation in DD. As a first timer I was really excited about stepping up to the challenge, but everything’s changed hasn’t it? I’m also a key worker and I’m just kissing my furlough that I’d taken for the event goodbye 🤨
Stay safe everyone! Al
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