Before we begin, let's try and avoid turning this into any kind of political debate and just stick to our own personal feelings, which might differ from those of someone else

As we roll into a new year, I'm wondering how people are viewing the coming year and how they think things are likely to pan out with regard to events. From what I can see, we're pretty much in exactly the same position we were back in March. Yes, there's a vaccine but quite how long it could take to get the population drugged up is anyone's guess but I can't see it happening quickly.

I've already started to see event dates banded about but at the same time, there's a good few that have already said they won't be taking place in 2021 - this is across the board, not just cycling related. I'd usually open entries for the WRT at the end of Jan but is there any point? May will soon be here and the natural cynic within me isn't holding its breathe that that things will be much different by then.

Anyway, genuinely interested to hear what others are thinking.

Quietly hoping that the TNR will happen in September. Not planning anything this side of the summer though, not beyond local rides or heading into Wales (if poss).

I’m optimistic by the second half of next year we’ll see something relatively normal. Not completely normal but nothing stays normal anyway. We’re hopefully likely to have multiple vaccines and an increasing range of effective treatments to help prevent serious illness. What seems likely to make a big difference is the duration of protection from a vaccine, multi year protection would ease the logistics massively.

The new and newsworthy strain is obviously a curve ball. I’ll just stay positive for now ta.

I’d be wary of reading into what’s likely to happen based on whether events are happening or not. For the large commercial events SWMBO is involved with I’d suggest it’s as much about the risk to ROI as to whether they’d be allowed to run. There was a lot of cancellation insurance paid out this year, that’s going to hit 2021 premiums and whether insurance can be taken out at all. How many surviving organisers of commercial events are going to want to take the risk “if” they can hang on for longer.

SWMBO goes back to full time after NYE on the basis of their lead in times for event organisation.

Nothing! Personally I can’t see anything return to normal anytime soon, so I’ll continue to ride and run local. When Wales opens its doors, then I’ll pop over and get into the mountains for some day walks.

Wife is dropping hints for Rovaniemi for 2022.... Hmmm

For the last couple of years I have been doing this exercise. It may seem a bit hippy and 'out there', but if you are reviewing the year and looking forward to next year, it can be helpful. Reflection doesn't come easy to some people, certainly not for me, but I have to do it for my job, when I do this though I tend to sit with a nice pen (essential), plenty of time (essential), a beer or two (definitely essential) and go through the booklet.

Enjoy

https://yearcompass.com/#download

I think lockdown/tiers will ease over the next few months but organised events will be unlikely in the first half of the year. Events where attendees are crammed together like concerts or even pub style events like the Kendal Film Festival may need another year.

Quite what level of worry/fear/distrust remains in rural areas remains to be seen. It was probably part of the "problems" some riders experienced on the BB200 this year.

Of course it all depends on how quickly the vaccine(s) get rolled out. My MiL (in her 80s) has only heard that she will be contacted in due course for her jabs.

A news article I saw said that with the new strain of virus 80% immunity might be required for herd immunity.
That was late summer.
Then we have to assume a future mutation won’t permit “vaccine escape”.
The virus will mutate to avoid our immune system and a vaccine.

I do not foresee tiers relaxing anytime soon; if nothing else they will get worse in the short term.
In time mass immunity will allow an easing of the rules.

So, late summer might see a return to a sense of normality.

However!!!

The above is for the UK and other first world countries.

I was hoping to visit Mongolia with a friend this year, she thinks maybe next year.
I am thinking 2022.
Why?
Because such non-first world countries will be behind the curve with vaccination; so, it will take time.
So, whilst I would like to think we could visit Mongolia in September-2021 it seems unlikely.

Q1, feels like a lockdown is coming, then tiers carry on. I'll be trying to work on my fitness in my own way and staying hopeful for the rest of the year.

Q2, I hope it starts to ease off, I really hope folk are sensible and learn that all rushing out together in the same crowded places hasn't helped things. But I expect the drive to stimulate the economy may lead us into the same loop, but I hope not.

Q3, I hope to participate in a couple of events. I really hope things are easing off and people can cautiously get back to partial normality

Q4, What passes for normal life is GO. Probably still wearing masks and being cautious, but hopefully as normal as it gets.

Optimistic, yes. But I'll worry about it still being poor show at the time.

The history lesson from the Spanish Flu says two years, I can't see this being any different. It'll take most of the year to vaccinate those that want it. I'm 57 and won't get it until June at the earliest
Meanwhilee people will continue to spread it around, clog the hospitals and generally be thick. I've got travel plans for 2022 but won't book anything until the start of that year. I would like to visit my parents in Ireland in 2021 though.

Cheddar Man wrote: ↑Sun Dec 27, 2020 10:33 am For the last couple of years I have been doing this exercise. It may seem a bit hippy and 'out there', but if you are reviewing the year and looking forward to next year, it can be helpful. Reflection doesn't come easy to some people, certainly not for me, but I have to do it for my job, when I do this though I tend to sit with a nice pen (essential), plenty of time (essential), a beer or two (definitely essential) and go through the booklet.

Enjoy

https://yearcompass.com/#download

Thanks for this. I'm a massive stationery geek (that's stationery, not stationary) so I might have a play with this on a rest day.

At the moment I don't see a change to the situation, if anything I see it getting worse and as such my only plan is to do what I had hoped to in 2020 and cycle down to see the start of the Trans Continental Race in Brest with a friend, being late July I am hoping that things may be changing for the better. The wife is happy for me to go out and bivvy, but I see me sticking to the back garden for the next few months. IN the mean time I intend on getting back to fitness after being off the bike for the last 36 months, I picked up a smart trainer and I have 14 miles of beach 5 mins from my front door to play and isolate on, infact I am going to start a photo a day project and start a new blog I think, keep the noggin active.

I've already written off Spring and Summer. I'm just hopeful that I might be able to do some sort of WRT type event in say September next year.

First priority for me is to be able to get back into Wales for either rides or bivvy'ing.

Not so worried about transmitting the virus with our already moderately socially distanced events but getting access to resupply with pubs and cafes still closed is the main issue. I'm often exceptionally self-sufficient as I love a good camp-brew but man, I'm getting tired of hulking all this nutrition and stove fuel around.

I'd probably not pay to enter anything right now. There's a couple of delayed events that hopeful organisers have delayed till 2021 and I'm not convinced they'll happen but still "training" anyway because, for me, that's just what I do now and it's better than doing nothing - I tried that and didn't like it.

It felt like such a privilege to travel when we could (Scotland then Wales at the last minute) that as soon as restrictions lift their skirts just a little I'll be out there. For now I'm pushing the boundaries of what can be achieved from home and right now the weather is curtailing that somewhat already - virus or no virus. My mountain bike nearly got blown to Dewsbury last night - and I was on the steel one!

Intrigue....no doubt it's hard times but it is also incredibly interesting to see how everything is playing out. Ultimately life is always difficult for one reason or another, it always has been. The way I see it is all I can do is accept that and do the best I can given my resources and ability. With that in mind the way I feel about the next year is excited, intrigued, and slightly tired!

A slow return to normality with the possibility of some events late in the summer - possibly only for those with " vaccine" certificates or some such

I dont think the return to normal will be as fast as we hope.

Lockdown in January/February, back to how it was earlier this year.

A gradual relaxation, by region, as case numbers fall. Highlands likely to benefit with early release, though pressure from Tier Tourism.

Hopefully, vaccination programmes will accelerate, especially with the AZ option now being available.

Events? I wouldn't be thinking about anything sizeable until 2H21. I guess Steve and I need to have a conversation about a May Caimgorms Loop Group Start. I'm currently of a mind that it's unlikely. With any luck, there will be a local(ish) Tri I can try.

I'm not hopeful of much of a change in 2021 tbh. Like most others I feel the first half of the year will be a rollercoaster of mini lockdowns as numbers rise and fall. I'd love to pack the bike in the car for a week in the Highlands but I can't see that happening till at least October. I can't see events being allowed to run due to the risk but they'll manage to get folk in to watch a football game as there's big money in it!
But hey hoy what do I know, you never know it may just die out by mid Jan and it'll all be back to normal

I'm just gonna carry on doing what I can whilst not relying on anything definitively happening.

Had mates who'd booked things for Christmas and were gutted and angry that it couldn't happen - was always likely so why book things???

I'll keep in trying to shift my excess girth, ride my bike as much as I can and then take any opportunities that arise by the horns and make the most of it.

Will I manage my 7th constitutive Tuscany Trail? Who knows. If it's possible then I'll do it and I'll have it in mind when planning my year but, like with everything else, it'll have to be played by ear and with the knowledge that it's entirely possible it'll not come off.

Nowt else for it really is there???

I think the new strain is going to push things back in the short term and maybe make things even worse than we've already seen. I agree with the consensus here that there's little chance of much normality before autumn at the earliest. I reckon it'll seem like there's not much change from what we've been living through, then suddenly things will improve as the vaccination program reaches critical mass late in 2021.

Was thinking about wrt the other day and I may be a bit sceptical but I do truly believe august bank holiday would be the best chance of it going ahead , I can see the next 6 months of tiers being upped and downed every month as I don’t believe any one government will be able to get a handle on it properly , cases drop and then rise , hopefully with a good percentage of the world population vaccinated the bug will start to become a bit like the flu in the way it’s handled, of course it could go the other way and mutate to a point where just tweaking the vaccines will have no effect.but let’s try and be a bit more glass half full

Having been off the bike for a couple of months, due to a painful hip, and having my Zwift based recovery stalled by a rotten cold, my plans are to continue zwifting until the weather and my fitness improves, then resume as many local rides as I can then, if/when travel opportunities arise, set off on a short notice circular multi day tour, combining camping and the occasional hotel stop.
If it doesn't happen then so be it, but I won't be entering any events or booking anything well in advance, as I just can't be bothered with the hassle involved, should things get cancelled

I'm off the mind that we are unlikely to be able to travel abroad until late next year if not the year after.

So unlike this year, where like a domino run, one thing after another I'd entered to do was cancelled, I'm going to plan some solo stuff from home, and if allowed further afield in the UK.

I joked with Fitz a few weeks back about our "first world problems" of not being able to swan off on big bike rides, but I now realise that those trips are a big part of some of our lives. So, I'll be planning some stuff which is achievable.

I think it will be the same s**t till late next year at the earliest, varying levels of lockdown until vaccines starts kicking in. Combined with Brexit (an observation, not starting a political debate) 2021 will be another bad year. 2022 before things start to return to ‘normal’ whatever that will be. (Cheery t**t me )

I don't have beleive we will really turn the corner until the spring of 2022. Hopefully late summer next year will be similar to the same time this year but I think the autumn and winter will see rolling lockdowns accross the denser populated regions of the UK.
I wish I could find something positive to say

Lockdowns, or more regions in tier4, between Jan until about March. Vaccine rollout should start to improve things in Q2 and Q3. But, if there are further variants which achieve vaccine escape, then all bets are off.

So I’m sitting tight until March, staying local. Will reassess any plans as significant developments dictate.