Sorry John, going to have to disagree with everything you've said there.Lazarus wrote: ↑Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:25 amI am not sure they did a peer review test of everyone attending and then tested them afterwards to reach this conclusion - the fact we have done no research is no reason to conclude its safe. Basically you are 100% assured to find no evidence if you dont do any research. The only conclusion you can reach is if you dont do research you dont have evidence, anything else is a guess.there hasn't once been a shred of evidence of a related increase in case numbers.
As for outside you do realise the spikes that occured around football matches in Liverpool and abroad and the Goodwood festival so i don think this is a safe conclusion either [though of course this was pre social distancing]You can say anything but you cannot prove this and i would argue the evidence disagrees with you - why no open air festivals? Concerts? Football crowds? etcwe can say the risk of catching the virus outdoors is now practically zero.
Unfortunately too many believe this so the infection rate is not going to go down.
We have a wide range of evidence streams to assess:
- ongoing ONS testing and reporting
- the Kings College Symptoms Tracker app, a dataset of c 4million users backed by testing of any reported symptoms (probably the strongest indicator of case numbers imo)
- daily updates on a variety of metrics from Public Health England
- data from NHS Pathways on 111 & 999 triage
- a bunch of other stuff that was used in the daily briefing slides that's still being published
You can get regional and historical data from pretty much all of those. I'd challenge you to go through them and find an upturn in cases numbers/111 calls/any other metric associated with any of the outdoor gatherings I mentioned. (*don't do this obvs as many people have already tried and failed)
The other things you've mentioned don't constitue evidence - a lack of football matches or festivals isn't evidence of high (or even moderate) risk of outdoor transmission. The reason they aren't currently allowed, as the CMO has explained, is because those outdoor events all have an associated indoor element - going to the pub before and after the match, travelling to the ground on public transport/in cars, being in bars and tents at festivals etc.
Every set of data above shows the number of infections falling, so I don't think it's particularly helpful (or accurate) to say things like "the infection rate is not going to go down" tbh.