Is a full lock-down coming?

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tobasco
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by tobasco »

Hamish wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:40 pm I am struggling to see what the exit strategy from all this is going to be though.

Lift restrictions a bit, enough to keep the number of new cases within ability of health service to cope.

Scarier is that if a home test is developed to show if someone has had it, and this allows them to get back to normal, you end up with a bunch of people who are isolated but not had it whilst world continues as was. They either await a vaccine or jump in and hope for best.
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FLV
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by FLV »

tobasco wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:26 pm
Hamish wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:40 pm I am struggling to see what the exit strategy from all this is going to be though.

Lift restrictions a bit, enough to keep the number of new cases within ability of health service to cope.

Scarier is that if a home test is developed to show if someone has had it, and this allows them to get back to normal, you end up with a bunch of people who are isolated but not had it whilst world continues as was. They either await a vaccine or jump in and hope for best.
Worse still if they decide to distinguish who has had it and is allowed out, the scary bit being the great unwashed reaction to the person who hasn't had it..
Hamish
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by Hamish »

Worse still if they decide to distinguish who has had it and is allowed out, the scary bit being the great unwashed reaction to the person
Well I guess those who have had it and therefore should/may be immune, have less to fear from others...?

The problem as I see it is that if the lockdown is effective at stopping people get it and therefore flattening the curve, it will be just as effective at maintaining a large proportion of the population that remains vulnerable. We have 50,000 confirmed cases now. If the true number is 100 times that, 90% of the U.K. are still at risk.

I stress I'm not advocating the original herd immunity idea that got us off to a bad start. I am sandwiched between parents who are very vulnerable and two daughters right on the front line in the NHS. I am simply pondering what on earth should/will happen next.
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Cheeky Monkey
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by Cheeky Monkey »

Antibody testing would be very useful for NHS and key workers to give certainty. When they have that facilities are more likely to be fully staffed and operate more efficiently (many won't need PPE etc). Such tests are likely to be prioritised for similar worker groups in every country.

So, whilst I agree the prospect of "some" people being deemed fit to go to work etc and the potential chaos and dissent that could cause I suspect it is a looooong way off.

As for exit, I think it'll be messy as heck but, the more the virus spread is delayed the more time technologies, knowledge and testing have to catch up, to a greater degree.

I think and hope it'll be alright in the end but suspect it'll take longer than many imagine.

Be interesting to see how Boris does. Someone who knows more about this than me speculated that he'd be intubated overnight (not gossip or inside knowledge, an educated guess). I dont like the bloke but hope he comes through ok, too many (any!) kids and yet another on the way.
jameso
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by jameso »

tbf the estimates on number of deaths come from Prof Neil Ferguson and his team doing the modelling at Imperial College London, so it's inaccurate to say they're driven by Government/media tactics to frame our expectations. They're also one of the main contributors to modelling and analysis for the WHO so it would be fair to say their methods conform to international standards.
I should have been clearer sorry, the 10k number was just a figure to make the point that wherever the expected or actual total is, the govt/media (ie the combined effect that creates the more polarised narratives in parts of the press from these situations, rather than the formal govt briefing statements) will probably position it in future as a better outcome than it could have been. I suppose what I'm getting at, without wanting to sound irrational, is about seeing the base of this early on - the 'busy Box Hill / parks' shots etc. That itself isn't govt message, I agree and I hope it stays that way.
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sean_iow
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by sean_iow »

Cheeky Monkey wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:21 am Antibody testing would be very useful for NHS and key workers to give certainty. When they have that facilities are more likely to be fully staffed and operate more efficiently (many won't need PPE etc). Such tests are likely to be prioritised for similar worker groups in every country.
I'm no expert (far from it) but even if you've had it, if you are repeatedly exposed to the virus you can still then get it again and potentially die? Isn't this viral overload? There is too much virus for you body to fight off? So PPE would still be required?

Isolation wouldn't be quite so bad if your loved ones had been tested and were shown to have had the virus and were therefore not able to infect you? My Mum would be much happier if instead of leaving a bag of shopping at the door I could come in for tea and a hug :sad:
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faustus
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by faustus »

From what i've read it seems like the antibody text isn't accurate enough, so there's not currently the option for people to do home tests to have the 'all clear'. Also, it sounds like there are varying levels of antibody reaction (hence poor detection) which might mean there is reduced confidence in people not getting the virus again/not being infectious again. So a test and release policy wouldn't be effective.

I think it's perfectly understandable that people are wondering when we're going to get out of this, and it's difficult to take that after 2-3 weeks in, there's no obvious way out.
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whitestone
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Re: Is a full lock-down coming?

Post by whitestone »

There's a lot of variables involved both in contracting the illness and in how you respond. Viral load is just one. Obesity and being in an immuno-depressed state, i.e someone undergoing chemo, are the two main reasons for an increase in susceptibility. Definitely not a black/white set of conditions that make things easy to understand or the press like to portray, there's a scale of risk.

I haven't seen anything about personal immunity once you have recovered from the virus, maybe it's just too early to say. It's usual for the body to retain immunity but there's talk of it only lasting several months but no real evidence to support that theory.
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