We need to remember that Duncan is further up the curve than us, people here (the UK not Bearbones) don't seem to be able to process how serious this will be.

It's like when you plan to go riding at the weekend but the weather forecast is for storm force winds, you think, 'it wont be that bad, I'll head out anyway' and when you leave home it's not too bad so you think it was a fuss over nothing. Duncan left for his ride before us and is further down the road and being battered by 80mph winds. Just because it's not here yet doesn't mean it's not coming.

I've seen no change in peoples behaviors here (Isle of Wight) over the last few days, they are still sat in the pubs and cafes, still stood about on the streets discussing how 'it's just like a cold I, don't know what all the fuss is about', the only thing people have done is rush to the shops and buy everything they can

What we are seeing now in terms of infections is a picture of the transmission from a week/2 weeks ago. We haven't learnt the lesson from Italy that action needs to be taken earlier, but the British public wouldn't entertain having to change their way of life and have their freedom reduced.

My mum is 83, my father-in-law is 80 and and diabetic who had a triple by-pass, my mother-in law is in her 70s and very frail, my wife has a reduced lung function following hooping cough last year (and works at a hospital) and my brother has a reduced immune system. Without drastic action to reduce the transmission rate all of them are facing an uncertain future

Well said Sean

I've seen no change in peoples behaviors here (Isle of Wight) over the last few days, they are still sat in the pubs and cafes, still stood about on the streets discussing how 'it's just like a cold I, don't know what all the fuss is about', the only thing people have done is rush to the shops and buy everything they can

I have seen some changes here over the last week but they're changes that people 'want' like taking a paid 2 weeks off work. There seems to be a feeling that after 2 weeks away from work everything will just return to normal ... we actually know that's very unlikely and this is likely to (a) get much worse before it gets any better (b) drag on for some time.

How many people have really considered that if I'm correct with the above, then they may not have a job to return to and certainly no viable income? I can only think that for those of us in good health of working age there will have to be a return to 'normal' reasonably quickly.

Amazed to find myself vaguely in agreement with Lazarus on some stuff though

the situtation is even worse than i feared
Just to be clear i am not wandering around in a panic prepping and shop[ping for things i dont need or want but its obvious this is unrecedented times with a potential range of consequences that should majeke every one take note and act diiferently - so far it seems to only extend to the selfish hoarding of food or a skive off work. Perhaps there is no such thing as a society anyome but thinking only of yourself will lead to more deaths and bigger problems that collective actions.

On that point the real issue is whether we can persuade enough to make behaviourial changes without enforcement[ or in some cases actually convince them its really happening]. The internet makes me think that is rather unlikely

Oh and this made me chuckle yesterday- for some persepctive

Your grandparents were called up to fight in a war, you have been asked to sit on our sofas for two weeks. If you are strong and brave you can get through this.

I'll just leave this here...
https://youtu.be/MfI1b_zcX2w

Situation this morning in Thames Valley....

I checked in with my old 7.30 dog walking crew and as a result dropped off my 2 bottles of garage Isopropyl to one who's wife is a nurse, who's hospital is rationing hand wash because the punters have been filling bottles up with the stuff, so she can make her own sanitiser.
Went to see another who has been flattened with Covid for 10 days since coming back from Italy, to see if they needed anything. Popped in the local supermarket to do some shopping for them and an isolating elderly neighbour and it was cleaned of fresh veg and meat at 10am. Then went to local post office which was shut due to illness. There are only supposed to be 6 Covid cases in Wokingham, but due to lack of testing hiding the true figures, I suspect its much much higher. I am fine in my own little world, just trying to do what I can for the people around me.

There has also been spate of burglaries in the village which the Police cant do anything about due to lack of resources

Its grim. I am not trying to scaremonger just help people understand that the South East is ahead of the curve and whats unfolding. The "Official" figures really are understating the problem.

The WW2 spirit comparison is an interesting one, because we're being asked to do the opposite, and it clearly doesn't play to a strength of national character in the way the 'blitz' spirit might have. We're being asked to not carry on: going to a pub isn't the coronavirus equivalent of opening up the bombed-out shop. It clearly requires a certain fortitude, patience, and self-discipline that as a nation we're wholly unused to.

There are certainly big changes where I am, it's very quiet and i've not seen people in cafes and pubs as normal, and everyone who can is working from home and i've seen more people out for solo walks and runs. I do think people will get more conditioned to the new normal as time goes on though.

whitestone wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:00 pm https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Not an easy read but very interesting - thanks. Puts some things into better context, worth wading through.

Popped in the local supermarket to do some shopping for them and an isolating elderly neighbour and it was cleaned of fresh veg and meat at 10am.

Local Tesco was already clear when it opened at 7am.. now perhaps just depends which day you go or what you're after. Got a good buy on 'buy 3' offer on Italian dried meats, funnily enough that section was full
Ironic that the hoarding or higher demand than supply rate at least might lead to more trips to the shops and potentially more transmission. I'm just trying to do a weekly shop vs every 2 days when passing as we live quite near the shops and it's a carry / walk / bike job.

Problem we have now James is they can’t get enough drivers in to make the deliveries, was just telling Stu there’s 60 of us mobile engineers for the company I work for being pulled from pillar to post to get servicing done as the rental yards will be emptied of kit over the next few weeks by the main supermarket brands
I believe from what’s come through this morning that they are relaxing drivers hours regs but to what extent I’m not sure , they need to do it to mot and service regs too as a lot of heavy vehicle mot slots have been cancelled due to this outbreak

middleagedmadness wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:58 pm Problem we have now James is they can’t get enough drivers in to make the deliveries, was just telling Stu there’s 60 of us mobile engineers for the company I work for being pulled from pillar to post to get servicing done as the rental yards will be emptied of kit over the next few weeks by the main supermarket brands
I believe from what’s come through this morning that they are relaxing drivers hours regs but to what extent I’m not sure , they need to do it to mot and service regs too as a lot of heavy vehicle mot slots have been cancelled due to this outbreak

That's what I was thinking, there's an impression there's hoarding going on put it's just as likely to be a slow down in supply for so many reasons inc drivers needing to be home. Didn't think of things like MOTs and the like though .. complicated isn't it. PS no blame intended anywhere along the line here, 'sub standard happens'.

Blame can’t lie any where James it’s just happened and spread rapid along with the fear of the unknown,because of me mixing on different sites constantly I have a phone call every morning asking how I’m feeling , when they ring tomorrow and they ask I think I might reply “ extremely well off this week , thanks for all the o/t” , on a serious note mind people do need to get a grip of themselves as the only ones smiling at the minute are the food suppliers with all this panicking going on, if people just shopped as normal there wouldn’t be a problem with supply chain but amongst certain people it’s a case of feck you jack , hopefully more people will learn a bit of compassion for others through this but the pessimist in me doesn’t believe that
Forgot to add , went to the local Aldi to get dog biscuits last night and there was a woman screaming in the freezer lane where’s the frozen chips IWANT chips , as I chuckle to myself I look to the right and it’s full of spuds , what ever happened to chopping a potato to make ya chips , ‘‘tis the price we’re now paying for wanting everything at a convenience

Talking to one of the staff in our local Co-op this morning, there's a shortage of drivers due to either non-covid-19 related illness or self-isolating so although there's stock in the warehouse it's struggling to get through to the stores. She also said people were queueing at 6am to get into the shop

Given there's likely to be a fairly even distribution of MOT renewal dates that means that around 2% of all vehicles will be in that situation in any given week. So if the Co-op have 1000 lorries (complete guess) that's 20 potentially out of action, well legally, so not a huge number in the scheme of things but of course everything is pared to the bone these days so often even one or two trucks being idle has an effect.

A couple of weeks of this and things are likely to settle down as people realise that they don't need another 50 toilet rolls to replace the two that they've used out of the last panic buy. Plus the stores will play catchup which along with rationing will handle most things. (Hopefully)

The slots Bob is quite serious , we’ve had 100 slots cancelled for next week around the midlands , I attended a breakdown last night for the inner floor not lowering , normally they wait for me to get there as it’s a quick bypass of the plc to get it down but no they pulled the curtains back and tried to unload the top deck with fork trucks causing more damage

Clubcard holders received an email from Tesco's Chief Exec yesterday:

From today:
"To ensure more people have access to everyday essentials, we are introducing a storewide restriction of only 3 items per customer on every product line, and removing multi-buy promotions.

In order to allow Tesco colleagues to focus on stocking shelves, helping to provide the essential groceries you are looking for and to avoid waste, we will close all meat, fish, deli counters and salad bars.

To be able to ensure our stores are clean, that we can replenish stock, and allow our colleagues to rest, we will change our trading hours with all stores closing at 10pm.

To ensure we are doing everything possible to reduce the risk of infection for both our customers and colleagues, we will be introducing some distancing measures at the checkout and, to make it swifter, invite customers who can, to pay by card.

To help free up slots for the more vulnerable, such as our elderly customers and those who are self-isolating, we are encouraging customers who shop online or choose Click+Collect for their grocery home shopping, to prioritise shopping in-store where possible.

To ensure our more vulnerable and elderly customers can shop in-store, we will prioritise one hour every Monday, Wednesday and Friday morning between 9-10am (except in our Express stores) and ask that you respect this."

Common sense, enforced
Others will follow suit, no doubt.

whitestone wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:44 pm Talking to one of the staff in our local Co-op this morning, there's a shortage of drivers due to either non-covid-19 related illness or self-isolating so although there's stock in the warehouse it's struggling to get through to the stores. She also said people were queueing at 6am to get into the shop

Given there's likely to be a fairly even distribution of MOT renewal dates that means that around 2% of all vehicles will be in that situation in any given week. So if the Co-op have 1000 lorries (complete guess) that's 20 potentially out of action, well legally, so not a huge number in the scheme of things but of course everything is pared to the bone these days so often even one or two trucks being idle has an effect.

A couple of weeks of this and things are likely to settle down as people realise that they don't need another 50 toilet rolls to replace the two that they've used out of the last panic buy. Plus the stores will play catchup which along with rationing will handle most things. (Hopefully)

Was thinking that myself. Once folks have maxed out on their stockpiling things should settle down. Think the fun will be is pickers are not allowed out to harvest crops and the distribution chain breaks down due to that.

MuddyPete wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:04 pm Clubcard holders received an email from Tesco's Chief Exec yesterday:

Tesco were just following Sainsbury's lead, I've also had emails from Waitrose about similar stuff. Went to Tesco at 06:00 this morning on the way to the swimming pool, it was like shopping at 10:00 on a Saturday. No rice, pasta, flour, tinned veg or toilet roll to be seen. Plenty of fresh fruit and veg though. Waitrose wasn't much better when I popped in after my swim for some chocolate...

One curious side effect of all this is that my company looks as though it's finally going to join this century and pay us by BACS rather than by cheque what with with everyone working remotely.

I went in to work last night for my first shift for 12 days and was pleasantly surprised, my boss is really trying to help folks out who have specific concerns (like me who lives with a vulnerable wife, another colleague who has a pregnant partner and another who is diabetic and a fourth who is awaiting cancer surgery). Dunno how effective his measures will be but he's genuinely trying to help folks. Having a boss who's a decent human being really can't be underestimated in lots of ways but at a time like this it's more valuable than ever. I really hope that in time people's good nature will start to shine through.

Chris (that name thread just worked for me ) Well done that boss of yours. My manager is also legendary and only got job here after almost 5 years of testing the waters (and being poached)...

faustus wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:22 pm The WW2 spirit comparison is an interesting one, because we're being asked to do the opposite, and it clearly doesn't play to a strength of national character in the way the 'blitz' spirit might have.

The other issue with that is that it's steeped in mythology and propaganda. The general population has always had its wallies, selfish and downright awful. Not that Pathe news would report it!

johnnystorm wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:49 pm

faustus wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:22 pm The WW2 spirit comparison is an interesting one, because we're being asked to do the opposite, and it clearly doesn't play to a strength of national character in the way the 'blitz' spirit might have.

The other issue with that is that it's steeped in mythology and propaganda. The general population has always had its wallies, selfish and downright awful. Not that Pathe news would report it!

I read a brilliant book about London in WW2. Crime was worse during the war than before or after. The reality was spivs, looting and murder still persisted.

History is written by the winners.

Popped in the local supermarket to do some shopping for them and an isolating elderly neighbour and it was cleaned of fresh veg and meat at 10am.

I haven't been to a supermarket for 2 weeks as have been effectively self isolating aka lambing. So less chance of catching much other than the disease known as sheep, with is incurable
Said I'd do a shop for my folks tomorrow.. so think it will be more than a little eye opening. Still I have my back up list of little shops I can go explore. I can only assume butchers and farm shops are doing stella trade

I have several small business's who rent units from my farm, so playing it by ear right now but starting to think about what appropriate support would be in each of their cases.

Which book, Dave?

Well that's that!

No recreational cycling at all here in France now.

Selfish ass-hats who just couldn't help themselves by being reasonable have ruined it for everyone.

See you on the other side of lockdown.....