Expectation, realisation and other stuff.

[Bearbonesnorm]

I apologise in advance if this is all a bit random. Anyway, I was thinking like you do, no doubt in part thoughts brought on by the HT and some BB200 recon and I wondered whether the liklihood of finishing a long distance race / ride / event was influenced directly by what expectations you placed on it before the start?

Had you (for whatever reason) believed that a series or singular event would happen at a certain point but it didn't, does the realisation then start to chip away and perhaps even demoralise? What if a number of prior expectations aren't met, are you then weakened mentally? Is a scratch now more likely?

If any of that's true, would we not be better trying to minimise prior planning, lower any expectations and just take whatever comes? Would we handle that better?

[ScotRoutes]

See my post from a little earlier this week.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14782


For some folk, not planning isn't an option.

[redefined_cycles]

I think I have some thoughts on this Stu...

On my charity ride (the 230 miler to london... sory if I've said that too often before... managed to fund over 11 kids for the years btw ) I failed on the recce. But it wasnt a total failure as I realised there was a section at mile 170ish that wasnt suitable for people thats been riding already for possibly 14 hours and knackered....

So I chucked in the towel, got a train to london, nursed my sore knee, then did the BoB (brothers on bikes) national ride the day after.. on which I again had to nurse and wrap my sore knee. Also my bottom bracket was on its last legs and gave me an excuse aswell for the 'scratch' the day before (it was just 10 miles before one of the major 20ish percent imbs in the Chilterns.

So came the main ride 3 weeks later. I'd nursed the knee and thought it must be better. Then at mile 40 it gave up. But I managed to keep going for another 130ish miles and ended up chucking in (proper scratch this time as it was erm, a, erm, race type of thing... for fun obviously) the towel at mile 177. Right knee was totally shot and the anti inflammatories had stopped working as had the CoCodamol.

Managed to complete the fundraising and didnt feel too demoralised towards my sponsors as I never state 'will do' in my chairty page but rather 'try to'... plus, each of thwse challenges (Khalid Bin Waleed (who was well ard btw) Challenge) is designed to not have 100 percent finishers rate. This year there was only 3 and I was the weak link...

Anyway. Post ride and (hopefully have figured out that it was cleat angles that caused the knee problem and soon to try again) I couldn't help feeling that (just the one) a sponsor out of the many might have felt let down by me not finishing... So I have taken the last month or so to make a plan.

On 10th early (anyone welcome to join of the can Bear with me and not drink and happy to bring their baggies if we are gonna be rid9ng together... or lycra if we're not ) of June I shall be attmept8ng it again and have my ticket booked for the 11th early for return train back from london. Am hop8ng that this time I shall complrte it and feel '"completed it is"...

Did I feel weakened mentally... nah. Not really as I felt I did what I set out to do and its an event for 'not the too weak'. Obviously I won't call it 'the toughest challenge of 2019', cos its not... but its tought enough that I wanna take part. Similar to your BB200 (am still contemplating if its clever of me!)...

[Lazarus]

whether the liklihood of finishing a long distance race / ride / event was influenced directly by what expectations you placed on it before the start?

Surely if you start expecting to fail you are just more likely to fail as you have "already given yourself permission" to fail? I always expect to finish any ride i start - I may not hit my desired cut of time but i will finish.

[Bearbonesnorm]

See my post from a little earlier this week.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14782


For some folk, not planning isn't an option.

Absolutely Colin and I think I understand but please forgive me if I don't.

Of course, we like to pretend that we enjoy the planning as much as the doing but, in reality, this is just us trying to remove any possible chance of things going awry

If we only have a minimal plan are the chances of it derailing less likely?

prevents me from entering events and undertaking certain rides, just in case I "fail".

Again, minimal expectation, so perhaps less chance of viewing something as a failure?

I don't know but obviously, we're all very different, which led to this thought popping into my head ... are some people hard-wired not to scratch when others might?

Surely if you start expecting to fail you are just more likely to fail as you have "already given yourself permission" to fail? I always expect to finish any ride i start - I may not hit my desired cut of time but i will finish.

I didn't really mean negative expectations John. I meant that you expected to reach a certain control or cover a certain number of miles in a given time but didn't. I'm basing the 'theory' on everyone starting a ride and expecting to finish it.

[whitestone]

Planning is really a means of tilting the odds in your favour. No one plans to fail but depending on your outlook, such contingency plans might be sensible or an underlying excuse.

There’s a continuum from the tiger who will never give up to the mouse who’s perpetually timid. Most of us aren’t at those extremes and have varying proportions of both. External factors (weather,etc) also play on our weaknesses in individual ways.

How you view “failure” depends on what your expectations, internal and external, are. “Just having a go” is somewhat different from obligating sponsors for example. Also previous successes engender higher expectations: look at this year’s HT as a case in point. Plus: finishing; posting a good time: winning are all different in how you perceive the outcome.

I don’t think anyone who set off on this year’s HT550 failed in the way modern society (mid)understands it. They all learned something and just as importantly will be looking at ways of overcoming whatever they’ve identified as weaknesses.

[ScotRoutes]

If we only have a minimal plan are the chances of it derailing less likely?

A minimal plan means heading out with little/no preparation or end-goal in mind. That does not compute for me. I wish it did.

prevents me from entering events and undertaking certain rides, just in case I "fail".

Again, minimal expectation, so perhaps less chance of viewing something as a failure?

I see where you are coming from but events do, by their very nature, set goals, even if that's just one of completion.

are some people hard-wired not to scratch when others might?

Some folk obviously have more determination/balls/drive. A lot of that can come from a sense of competition. We all know I'm not a racer though so I'm imagining what it's like.

And to pick up Bobs point

Also previous successes engender higher expectations: look at this year’s HT as a case in point. Plus: finishing; posting a good time: winning are all different in how you perceive the outcome.

I was going to put this to a couple of folk (on the quiet). If you'd previously got round the HT550, was it easier to bale this time? If you'd previously got round in 4 days and realised you couldn't do it at least as fast this time, was it too easy to bale out rather then complete the ride? That would, in a way, turn Alans practice of favouring previous finishers on its head

[GregMay]

Literally every long fast ride I have done I've gone into with zero expectations. SWD, PBW, HTR, TDR.

Those I've gone into wanting, nay expecting, to go hard and fast - I've scratched at least 75% of the time. The only exceptions I can think of are 24 hour races where I knew I could podium, and I did.

[sean_iow]

I was going to put this to a couple of folk (on the quiet). If you'd previously got round the HT550, was it easier to bale this time? If you'd previously got round in 4 days and realised you couldn't do it at least as fast this time, was it too easy to bale out rather then complete the ride? That would, in a way, turn Alans practice of favouring previous finishers on its head

I was thinking about this (see also my rambling write up) and I think there might be more to it than that, once everyone finishes I'll work out the stats.

There are more race vets from the uk so if you've only driven a few hours to the start is it easier to quit than if you've flown half way round the world?

Did our knowledge of the route mean we had a better idea of what was to come? Why ride on for another day to a dangerous river? If you don't know it's coming up then by the time you get there will you take more risk as you're now further into the ride?

And has been said, do the previous finishers ride for a time/to race rather than to complete? I was faster on my first day so could I have gone under 5 days if I'd carried on? I'll never know, hopefully I'll never get another chance to find out if I can get round in weather like that

[ScotRoutes]

I was going to put this to a couple of folk (on the quiet). If you'd previously got round the HT550, was it easier to bale this time? If you'd previously got round in 4 days and realised you couldn't do it at least as fast this time, was it too easy to bale out rather then complete the ride? That would, in a way, turn Alans practice of favouring previous finishers on its head

I was thinking about this (see also my rambling write up) and I think there might be more to it than that, once everyone finishes I'll work out the stats.

There are more race vets from the uk so if you've only driven a few hours to the start is it easier to quit than if you've flown half way round the world?

This is definitely a thing. I've gone up mountains on atrocious/dangerous conditions because I've driven a long way/time to get there whereas I might otherwise have sacked it off. An analysis (a few years back) of Scottish mountain rescue statistics showed up a very high percentage of English casualties. That was mostly put down to the same factor of travel distance/effort. (FWIW it also showed a high percentage of teachers. I'll let you figure that one out for yourself )

[Cheddar Man]

It's all a mindset thing. If you start an event thinking "if such and such happens I'm bailing" then you are more likely to spend the event looking for it to happen. If you can start an event thinking the "This is it for the next 24/36/48/72 hours, a bit of discomfort and soon it will be over"

As soon as doubt creeps in you are essentially screwed. Keep strong in the head, there is a reason why psychiatrists and psychologists are regularly employed by top teams and riders alongside technical coaches and mechanics.

As for the prior planning. I think the key is to plan for everything being perfect up until arrival in the event car-park, and then be ready for everything going tits up. "No plan survives first contact with the enemy"

[Pyro]

Not so much rides, but the first Ultramarathon I did (50 miles, 5,000m of ascent in the Pyrenees) I only set myself the target of finishing within the cutoffs. The rest didn't matter, and probably because of that I had a great run, enjoyed it, and finished well within time.

I'm a completionist rather than a competitor. I'm out to have a good time not get a fast time. It's not hard to balance that expectation

[BigdummySteve]

Hmm... I see that as a ‘racer’ mentality. If you’re putting in a lot of effort and you have personal ‘reward’ structure based on a placement within the competition or, if so inclined Strava segment etc then failure to meet the external or self imposed grade means there is little motivation to carry on.

I almost bailed on my jogle, I hard couple of days after multiple hard days pushed me to the point of ‘why the f**k am I doing this?’ Luckily being big and dumb my bike wouldn’t fit on a train

Basically I’ve come close but never quit, on the wrt my lad complained that his legs hurt, I replied “yes they will” that, was thankfully enough of an explanation for him. I realised that a second night out might really spoil it for him so we headed back to BB towers. The day ended up as 30 miles/ 3000ft. Not too shabby for a ten year old who cycles intermittently.
The point? A clear goal with an achievable end point and no real option to quit halfway.

People who complete the HT550, Tour Divide and other huge races have a different mindset to most of us, it’s not just the physical endurance but the sheer pigheaded determination, on long rides it’s the head which often makes the legs quit.

My solution is being skint, if I don’t make the mark usually I can’t afford the alternative

[Cheddar Man]

Not so much rides, but the first Ultramarathon I did (50 miles, 5,000m of ascent in the Pyrenees) I only set myself the target of finishing within the cutoffs. The rest didn't matter, and probably because of that I had a great run, enjoyed it, and finished well within time.

I'm a completionist rather than a competitor. I'm out to have a good time not get a fast time. It's not hard to balance that expectation

Would you enter an event that had cut off times that were quite challenging, or would you find the pressure spoilt the general feel of the event?

Strangely I have the exact opposite mindset. I like to chase something. I used to orienteer to quite a high level, and even now love a tight age-group cut off for events. For that reason I found the WRT quite challenging as there was 'no pressure' to get anywhere. No-one jump on me, I get the ethos of the event is that it isn't a race, I am just saying that in the same way some people enjoy don't like pressure of time, I love it!

[Chicken Legs]

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face"

Mike Tyson

[In Reverse]

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face"

Mike Tyson

That was a particularly tough year on the HT550.

[Pyro]

Would you enter an event that had cut off times that were quite challenging, or would you find the pressure spoilt the general feel of the event?

I can and do enter things that push me - I didn't know that I could complete that first ultra within time, so I still pushed hard to stay ahead of cutoff, but that was my only target. There are things I don't enter because I know I can't make the cutoffs, but if it's borderline I'll give it a go. I wouldn't be annoyed if I missed a cutoff, though: disappointed, but not annoyed.

I come from an orienteering background as well, never that high a level but I still do a bit and enjoy it. I have uber-competitive friends who tried mountain marathons and couldn't cope with not just chasing down the person in front, because you don't know if they're on the same course as you or if they're taking a good route choice. I'd rather be last having navved well and had a slow clean run than win having made a dozen mistakes but the pace to get away with them. This year's Northern Night Champs was an almost perfect run for me, though I was second-to-last. I was thoroughly happy with that.

[BigdummySteve]

STOP BEING SOFT

[jameso]

I always thought it was about motivation rather than expectation, though maybe there's something in it all that both describe. I think if you really want to do something you'll be more likely to get through it. Whether that's getting a top 10 spot or finishing the route etc doesn't matter. If you're racing for a top 10 but that in itself isn't your real motivation then you may bail but if keeping your best momentum and low stop time is what you enjoy you may find you get a good result through that.

Read Scotroute's post on the other thread, that was interesting and I take back a lot of what I've said about winging it. Hadn't fully appreciated how and why others plan as much. I do think touring or bikepacking whether racing or not is one of the few things that rewards a loose approach but that's more about the day by day occurrences on the ride, not the pre-planning, schedules, targets etc. Prep as in good kit and suitable training is something I'd put time into in the hope of being able to be reactive on the day.

Have to say though, I think being able to let go of plans and just ride (or many other things in life) for no reason apart from the ride is wonderful. Simply make a decision when it needs to be made, rest of the time I seem to be more open to noticing the small stuff.

[pistonbroke]

I must say James, your laissez faire approach comes over loud and clear in the way the TNR runs. Basically it's a case of "here's a variety of great routes and places you might want to visit, bugger off and have a lovely time and I might see you at the finish or somewhere en route"
My OCD approach to the Spanish C2C is probably the polar opposite. I create a single route along what I consider the best combination of interesting trails, resupply places, bivvy spots and historic places and aim to ride with the participants wherever practical. This of course puts pressure on the group to ride at a similar pace, have similar feeding habits, want to stop at similar times and places etc. Maybe this trip would be more successful if I took a hands off approach but I feel a keen sense of responsibility to giving the riders a great experience whether they want it or not.

[jameso]

^ interestingly, that's an approach that for me would create stress and why I couldn't do a formal or even loosely guided tour with an itinerary - mainly in a personal way as I'd not want to be the antisocial bugger who clears off early (eg I'd happily wait for you at a cafe later but for me to miss the dawn light is missing the best part of the day) or rides at a different pace for one or two days Although the recent Roam Scotland Rally had recommended daily stages and that worked well for us all meeting up along the way. Thing is, one person's idea of a great ride and mine might differ some days and be the same on others and when the route is new to you it's all good anyway - being worried about missing the absolute best-of may cause problems with expectations.
I read that mountaineers are often people who like to be alone who necessarily need to spend time with other people who like to be alone. One great thing about riding a bike is no necessity to 'rope up'.

[pistonbroke]

The stressful thing for me is setting off on a ride without a clear plan of a route, where to eat, sleep etc. A good example is at the end of the month I'm doing a 5 day trip around Alicante and Valencia provinces, an area I don't really know. It's not a pre-defined route but instead of winging it with a loose list of towns taped to my top tube, I'm scouring wikiloc for bits of a route and stitching them together whilst overflying the area on google earth. Obviously this removes the joy of stumbling across an unexpected delight but gives a sense of certainty that cuts down the worrying. I guess it boils down to how much self confidence you have in getting yourself out of trouble should the proverbial hit the fan.
Can you guess, I dont do uncertainty

[RIP]

Once again Mr Wright kicks off a cracking thread!

What's great about This Place is the variety of angles and interpretations of bikepacking. One of the great [ good natured and mutually respectful I hope ] divides (or Great Divides ) I thought existed was that between 'race' and 'tramp'. I'm firmly in the latter camp but have great respect and awe for some of the 'race'/'challenge' situations on Here.

But I wonder if there's something about aiming for total accuracy of measurement when it comes to assessing 'failure'. If you set out to ride X miles in Y time then there's much more scope for 'failure' no matter how well prepared or committed or motivated you are. My main criteria is whether I'm going to laugh or not. Just about anything, especially inconsequential or small, will set me off. Very difficult to measure too - almost infinite scale of measurement for the level of amusement or delight. So I don't feel ANY of my rides have failed. One thing that baffles me a bit though, and I've said it before about 'Routes' and 'Events' is all these things are totally arbitrary - HT550 didn't exist before it existed, neither did the Pennine Way. 'Failure' with those things is only failure at an arbitrary 'thing'.

Anyway, great thread.

[RIP]

I was prompted to chip in cos I'm reading an ace book at the moment titled 'Impossibility: the science of limits and the limits of science'. So a timely thread . I'm only a few pages in and already we've ranged across Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle, Greek philosophers, Zeno's Paradoxes, Escher's 'impossible' drawings, Bertrand Russell's musings and of course Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy. One of the most stimulating and mind-expanding books I've read in ages.

The book before that (Feynman!) included a discussion about 'doubt' and its importance to continuing scientific and human progress. As soon as you stop doubting anything then progress ceases. I won't pursue that any further here and risk upsetting huge swathes of the forum or population in general - because you can see where it's leading - but I've just realised that is very relevant to this thread too. My brain is now on fire so it's time for a pot of tea .

[RIP]

Nice brew that was. Tea always helps. So tieing my two posts together, re measurement and limits and impossibility (which is basically what Heisenberg's ravings are all about), at very tiny scales it becomes impossible to measure something accurately. So... erm... stick with it Reg stick with it cos my brain's deffo melting now... if one does something solely for the sake of measuring the numbers (here's another one: against or relative to what?) you are frequently bound to fail. So..erm.. flimsy conclusion, forget all those numbers and just have a laugh . Ahem.

This probably explains my tenuous hold on reality. I'm continually doubting it.