Expectation, realisation and other stuff.

[fatbikephil]

I'm of the zero expectations camp in terms of completing something but I look at the weather and expect the worst whilst hoping for the best.....

Motivation? This years HT, the Rovaniemi and 2017 HT I had little in the way of motivation other than it would be a good laugh and an adventure. I got round the HT in 17 as the weather and trail conditions were fab so I was able to set aside knee and back grumbles to cash in on this rarity. This year the weather exaggerated any other problems hence the bail out when the knees started hurting. As per Scotroutes post, having already done the HT made a difference. In 2015 I was under threat of a huge slagging off from mates if I failed so I pushed on. This year I had nothing to prove.

Its no big deal, these routes aren't going anywhere so there is aye next year.....

[Mariner]

Try an experiment.
Two groups on next BB200.
One gets advance gpx and the other no gpx until sign on.
See if it makes a difference.

edit
oops should have read BB200 not WRT.

[RIP]

Interesting. Being a bit slow here as usual - difference between what? Who 'does' all the GRs? Who spends longest in cafes? Who finds the 'best' bivvy spots? Who gets 'there' and back fastest? I wonder what a 'failure' to experience the WRT looks like (apart from registering but not actually being able to start due to unfortunate circumstances)?

Have a third group: 'not given a gpx/map at all' .

[Cheddar Man]

Try an experiment.
Two groups on next WRT.
One gets advance gpx and the other no gpx until sign on.
See if it makes a difference.

Four groups....

One advance .gpx
One on the day .gpx
One map and a list of references
One absolutely nothing at all and just go for a nice ride for a couple of days going where they want

Maybe even a group that has to be in certain places by a certain time (can I be in this one please ?)

Then see who has the best time ? Which of course leads us on to a discussion of what constitutes a 'good time'

[gairym]

I'm basing the 'theory' on everyone starting a ride and expecting to finish it.

I've never failed to finish a ride I started - they've all ended one way or another

But to be less flippant, I think expectation definitely has an impact on how rides/events turn out (both positively and negatively).

I'm currently [smugface] in bed in a lovely little agriturismo b&b in Tuscany [/smugface] after the first day of this year's Tuscany Trail and I've already officially DNF'd!

I properly hurt my back last week and was fairly certain that I'd be unable up make it to the start but.....two physio sessions, two doctors appointments (including my first experience of acupuncture!), a lot of stretches and no small amount of medication later and.....I made it to Massa and the start line :)

I knew going in that my back could fail at any point (and still likely will) and so I'd mentally prepared myself for that possibility.

On the first big (steep, horrible and insanely hot) climb of the day I felt the all too familiar tell tale signs that things weren't great and so instead of battling on I dropped back down to the flat and re-routed myself to miss out those climbs and rejoin the route later in the day.

Very weirdly a few minutes after rejoining the route I bumped back into Dave (FLV) and we rode together again.

So my point is that, whilst I felt an initial pang of disappointment at having to go off-piste (and therefore officially 'fail') I soon rallied and realised that I'm riding my bike through Tuscany with loads of other loons and enjoying magnificent food, stunning scenery and great weather - how's that failing???

The trip is sightly different now but, with a little luck and careful management, I'll make it to the end with a smile on my sunburnt face

Failure? You decide.

[middleagedmadness]

Not a racer ,have performed at other sports at international level but never felt the need to do more than what I was capable of ,but back on track ,this weekend was my lads first trip to Wales only ever ridden in the mountains once before and for him that was a nightmare , this time we had a rough purple line to follow and a couple of maps hoping to get to a bothy on the first night and then see how we went the second day ,there was sheer determination in him even when we sacked off the purple line and just followed our noses and maps ,2nd day was supposed to be a short 20ish miles with 2000ft of climbing ended up being 36 and 4000ft because it was a case of that looks nice let's head off down there ,I believe if we had stuck to the route then he wouldn't have had as much enjoyment and he wouldn't have felt as much pride in himself for getting back ,a bit like me he's not great when it comes to hard set routes or rules and regs just prefers to see what happens , sometimes it works out others it dosent ,it's just part of life

[RIP]

[sean_iow]

I've had a chance to look at the 2019 HT550 finishers list. I had to check back on ride records to see if some were veterans as the starters on trackleaders aren't quite the same as the start list on the website as there are always last minute changes etc. Apologies if I've gt a figure wrong anywhere but they should be close enough for this. Also note that I've not taken into account people scratching as they ran out of time. I know of 2 (both veterans) who would have finished but they had a flight/ferry to get to so had to scratch to get back in time.

There were 63 starters of which 26 where veterans and 37 rookies.

Of the veterans 7 finished (27%) and 19 scratched (73%)
Of the rookies 15 finished (41%) and 22 scratched (59%)

This would seem to show that percentage wise more veterans scratched than rookies. There could be lots of reasons for this which we've discussed in the thread.

Does this mean that rookies should get preference over veterans for places? It depends on the aim of the selection. If the process is to try and get the maximum number of completions then yes. But if the selection process is to try and ensure that everyone gets back safely then the maybe the current system is correct? Did the rookies have a greater completion rate because they didn't know what was coming or were they more motivated as it was their first time?

Also of interest is the percentage of overseas riders.

There were 20 riders from overseas and 43 from the UK

Of the overseas riders 10 finished (50%) and 10 scratched (50%)
Out of the uk riders 12 finished (28%) and 31 scratched (72%)

So your best chance of getting a finish is to be a rookie from overseas, or ride it when the weather is better Maybe when I've got time I'll do the same exercise for the 2018 edition to compare.

[jameso]

So your best chance of getting a finish is to be a rookie from overseas

I think I read similar conclusions for the TDR. Perhaps not RE rookies but certainly for overseas riders - more committed perhaps, or at least more effort needed and more time + ££ invested leading to a high chance of good prep.

[Asposium]

Ignoring time constraints of work, train, plane etc for me, the necessity to turn around is dictated by the question “is my life in danger?”

So, years a go I was hiking in the Iceland highlands, absolutely no one around.

As one progresses through life we answer a series of questions, do this or do that, we are always making risk analysis observations.
I was trying to walk up a valley the path up which had been washed away.
Whilst I had an inReach and an Iridium sat phone there was a realisation that to continue would be rather daft; even turned back meant falling into glacial water runoff and getting a soaking.
It was nice to be able to get a “verbal hug” that day.