The Next Level?

[Ian]

The "back in the day" photo thread prompted me to think that compared to say, 10 or 20 years ago, stuff in general has come a huge amount; cars, computers, TV, cameras, phones, bike kit, outdoor kit, tents, fabric materials, GPS, satellite tracking, bike lights, the list goes on and on.

At a bikepacking level, when I take a look at the kit I've got already, I'm pleased to say that I'm pretty happy with all of it. Some of it was expensive, but not all of it by any means. A blend of good materials and well thought out design and innovation results in the gear I've chosen working really well together.

So, my questions are, at the top level, the cutting edge and all that:
What's the next level?
Where do we go next?
How can "stuff" get even better?
Can materials get lighter still?
Can we continue to come up with ever more innovative designs for the same old "stuff"?
What haven't we got now that we need (or want)?

Or are we just going to see ever diminishing returns in the refinements of the things we have already?

I know there is no absolute answer to some/any of these, but I'm interested to see what people think.

[Dan_K]

I think the main difference we're likely to see is price. Entry level items will be made with higher levels of technology. It's already starting to happen now I think. Gore Tex and Event are already becoming the norm for sub £100 jackets and boots.
I also believe that synthetic insulation will replace goose down in time in terms of thermal effectiveness with the bonus of being waterproof or quick drying.
In terms of fabrics and tents, I think that lighter models will appear but designs will stay the same/similar. Electronics on bikes could feature more in terms of frame integration.
Hard luggage a possibility on bikes? Would a manufaturer be bold enough to manufacture a frame with a luggage compartment in the main triangle?
I don't think there is a huge amount to be done in terms of bicycle design.
Things that worries me are population growth and land access.

Electronics and fabric technology are the things that seem to move on the fastest and it's scary to think of where they will go.
I'm only 31 and am amazed that my little boy finds it hilarious that I had a black and white tv as a kid.

[Bearbonesnorm]

I'm not convinced that materials will actually get much lighter. We've already entered a world where some products have moved from what I'd describe as 'ultralite' to 'stupidlite'. I'm hoping that materials will remain at similar weights but will become more robust ... happily it seems to be happening already with things like cuben/polyester hybrids.

I can see that electronics will become a much bigger part of what we do. Maybe gps intergrated directly into a bike ? Electronic suspension systems ? I don't think that bike design will alter too much, after all many of us still ride fully rigid bikes but what they're made from / how they perform is chalk and cheese from 20 years ago

I also wonder whether technology can sustain itself at the rate it has over the last couple of generations ... but then again

[Ray Young]

Difficult to say, every now and then stuff comes out of the blue that could never be forseen. Things will keep getting lighter and pack smaller, imagine clothing or sleeping bags that are 100% breathable, 100% waterproof, maintain a constant internal temperature no matter what, weigh next to nothing and pack up tiny. Lighter frame and component materials. Electronics on bikes for constantly variable automatic gearing. Lighter replacement for rubber tyres.
Rates of development just get faster and faster but can the average person in the street keep up with it all and will manufacturers be able to continuously invest in what they develop if it is always going to be outdone in a couple of years or even months?

[Bearbonesnorm]

This thread reminds me ... I must buy a mobile phone sometime

[Taylor]

Bloody Luddite

[Dan_K]

This thread reminds me ... I must buy a mobile phone sometime

How do you manage to let your friends and family know what you had for lunch on Facebook if you don't carry a phone on the trails?

[royAB]

If we're going to get blue sky on this one;

Biotech - in it's infancy so many things to come from there eg bioluminescence - self illuminating shelters?
Ceramics & ceramic alloys - gears, bearing surfaces, almost anything still metal set to get stronger & lighter
Composites - still in their (relative) infancy so I'd expect some amazing developments in that arena
Display technology - print-on /wrap around screens eg.
Power - ultra thin batteries, nano-structures improving conductivity, energy harvesting..lots of work going on
GPS/location info - augmented reality overlays already with us

Yup, the future's bright for bike tech

[gairym]

This thread reminds me ... I must buy a mobile phone sometime

me too!

I LOVE not having a mobile (though I now carry the wife's when on rides in case of baby emergencies)

[Adrian Brewster]

Ten speed ultra-lightweight muni (mountain unicycle), two wheels are so old fashioned. Lightweight, infinitely variable insulated/waterproof/breathable clothing, adjustable from shorts/t-shirt to longs/waterproof jacket to drysuit to down bag/bivi bag equivalents, no tent/tarp required, just lie down, flick a switch and go to sleep warm and cosy under the stars. A true white water packraft that weighs less than a kilo (Alpacka are getting there.) I reckon that's achievable in the next five years, just as long as we have a small non-violent revolution first. Ever hopeful!

[Zippy]

Materials tech and the detail used with FEA (finite element analysis) allowing to hone in on designs and make them more efficient.

So rather than new stuff, huge improvement (which we've already seen), but with historical data to aid R&D on frame design, wheels etc. So the excess fat will be trimmed off bits of frame, and sections which need beefing up will be. Whilst I appreciate a lot of this has already been done, I reckon the materials will get better with composites as we learn more about them and improve manufacturing process'. Designs could be so bespoked that we can get lighter frames being used by lighter riders and no luggage that a heavier person would break - put into account design life's and you could get some silly lightweight bikes (look at world cup XC bikes).

Tyre tech is also moving on, with information from motorsport also trickling in.

Dunno, it will be interesting when they decide where to put the R&D efforts and what trickles out.

Or are we just going to see ever diminishing returns in the refinements of the things we have already?

I totally agree with this.

[ScotRoutes]

No one read or watched Dune then?



All your water transportation and storage problems resolved.

[Ian]

Some interesting responses here.
Like royAB's blue sky stuff :)
Making lightweight stuff stronger is a valid point too, and producing fabric that behaves more like skin (i.e. 100% waterproof and 100% breathable).
The integration of technology into bike stuff will be interesting, and as we've seen with most groupset components, stuff filters down eventually.